〈纽约汇市〉美元自两个月高点回落市场聚焦美国CPI

美元周二 (9 日) 小幅走低，投资人在一项可能大幅影响利率预期的关键通膨数据公布前保持谨慎。同时，美国总统川普誓言将对伊朗击落一架美军直升机作出回应，打击了市场对华府与德黑兰达成和平协议的期待。

纽约尾盘，追踪美元兑六种主要货币的美元指数 (DXY) 下跌 0.1%，报 99.95。前一交易日曾触及 100.21，创两个月新高。

外汇市场参与者正密切关注周三公布的 5 月美国消费者物价指数 (CPI)，以及周四公布的生产者物价指数 (PPI)。

由于上周公布的就业市场数据显示经济仍具韧性，加上伊朗战争推升油价，可能进一步助长通膨，投资人认为联准会 (Fed) 今年可能维持利率不变，甚至进一步升息。这项预期也导致债券遭到抛售，美国公债殖利率大幅攀升。

Interactive Brokers 资深经济学家 José Torres 表示，「明天公布的 CPI 是否能让市场松一口气，其实相当复杂，因为即使数据符合预期，也已经处于相当高的水准。」

他指出，「市场预估中值为 4.2%，若成真将是自 2023 年 4 月以来最高水准，也是 37 个月新高。不过，由于租金涨幅放缓及房价增速温和，核心通膨率预计将接近 3%，约为 2.9%，是去年 9 月以来最高水准。」

Torres 表示，「这些居高不下的通膨数据，让投资人开始思考新任 Fed 主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 下周首次主持联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议时将采取何种立场。固定收益市场投资人正密切关注这位过去立场偏鹰派的人物，目前利率期货市场反映今年至少升息 1 码的机率约为 69%。」

他补充称，「在 2026 年出现升息作为基本情境，令人有种似曾相识的感觉。川普希望降息刺激经济，但他提名的 Fed 主席却受到债券市场压力所牵制，而债市目前发出的讯号是政策应该更紧，而不是更松。」

川普扬言回应伊朗击落美军直升机

在中东局势方面，前一交易日市场对区域情势降温的乐观情绪，周二受到重挫。川普表示，伊朗击落了一架正在荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 巡逻的美军阿帕契 (Apache) 直升机。

川普在 Truth Social 发文表示，「机上有两名飞行员，两人都平安无恙、未受伤。然而，美国必须对这次攻击作出回应。」

稍早，美国中央司令部 (U.S. Central Command) 表示，一架阿帕契直升机在阿曼海岸附近坠落，两名机组人员已安全获救，事故原因仍在调查中。

川普承诺采取回应行动，削弱了市场对美国与伊朗即将达成和平协议的预期。

此前，外交局势似乎有所改善。伊朗与以色列周一宣布，将停止彼此攻击行动，此前以色列曾对黎巴嫩境内、由伊朗支持的真主党 (Hezbollah) 发动军事行动。

ECB 会议受关注

在其他主要货币方面，欧元小幅走高，投资人将焦点转向周四举行的欧洲央行 (ECB) 政策会议。

市场普遍预期 ECB 将升息 1 码，反映伊朗战争推升能源价格所带来的通膨压力。

虽然升息决策本身已大致被市场消化，但投资人仍将密切关注 ECB 对未来政策方向的指引，以及决策官员如何评估能源成本上升对通膨前景的影响。

另一方面，日元兑美元走弱，美元兑日元突破 160 的重要心理关卡。此水准过去曾促使日本政府出手干预汇市。

截至台湾时间周三 (10 日) 约 6:00 价格:

美元指数报 99.9787。+0.0266%
欧元兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 欧元兑 1.1537 美元。-0.0520%
英镑兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 英镑兑 1.3367 美元。-0.0822%
澳币兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 澳币兑 0.7026 美元。-0.0142%
美元兑加币 (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.3943 加币。-0.0430%
美元兑日元 (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 160.3100 日元。-0.0312%

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José Torres 表示，「明天公布的 CPI 是否能让市场松一口气，其实相当复杂，因为即使数据符合预期，也已经处于相当高的水准。」\n\n他指出，「市场预估中值为 4.2%，若成真将是自 2023 年 4 月以来最高水准，也是 37 个月新高。不过，由于租金涨幅放缓及房价增速温和，核心通膨率预计将接近 3%，约为 2.9%，是去年 9 月以来最高水准。」\n\nTorres 表示，「这些居高不下的通膨数据，让投资人开始思考新任 Fed 主席华许 (Kevin Warsh) 下周首次主持联邦公开市场委员会 (FOMC) 会议时将采取何种立场。固定收益市场投资人正密切关注这位过去立场偏鹰派的人物，目前利率期货市场反映今年至少升息 1 码的机率约为 69%。」\n\n他补充称，「在 2026 年出现升息作为基本情境，令人有种似曾相识的感觉。川普希望降息刺激经济，但他提名的 Fed 主席却受到债券市场压力所牵制，而债市目前发出的讯号是政策应该更紧，而不是更松。」\n\n川普扬言回应伊朗击落美军直升机\n\n在中东局势方面，前一交易日市场对区域情势降温的乐观情绪，周二受到重挫。川普表示，伊朗击落了一架正在荷姆兹海峡 (Strait of Hormuz) 巡逻的美军阿帕契 (Apache) 直升机。\n\n川普在 Truth Social 发文表示，「机上有两名飞行员，两人都平安无恙、未受伤。然而，美国必须对这次攻击作出回应。」\n\n稍早，美国中央司令部 (U.S. Central Command) 表示，一架阿帕契直升机在阿曼海岸附近坠落，两名机组人员已安全获救，事故原因仍在调查中。\n\n川普承诺采取回应行动，削弱了市场对美国与伊朗即将达成和平协议的预期。\n\n此前，外交局势似乎有所改善。伊朗与以色列周一宣布，将停止彼此攻击行动，此前以色列曾对黎巴嫩境内、由伊朗支持的真主党 (Hezbollah) 发动军事行动。\n\nECB 会议受关注\n\n在其他主要货币方面，欧元小幅走高，投资人将焦点转向周四举行的欧洲央行 (ECB) 政策会议。\n\n市场普遍预期 ECB 将升息 1 码，反映伊朗战争推升能源价格所带来的通膨压力。\n\n虽然升息决策本身已大致被市场消化，但投资人仍将密切关注 ECB 对未来政策方向的指引，以及决策官员如何评估能源成本上升对通膨前景的影响。\n\n另一方面，日元兑美元走弱，美元兑日元突破 160 的重要心理关卡。此水准过去曾促使日本政府出手干预汇市。\n\n截至台湾时间周三 (10 日) 约 6:00 价格:\n\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/index/GI/DXY\">美元指数</a>报 99.9787。+0.0266% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑美元 (EUR/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/eurusd\">欧元</a>兑 1.1537 美元。-0.0520% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑美元 (GBP/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/gbpusd\">英镑</a>兑 1.3367 美元。-0.0822% </li>\n<li><a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑美元 (AUD/USD) 汇率报 1 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/audusd\">澳币</a>兑 0.7026 美元。-0.0142%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a> (USD/CAD) 汇率报 1 美元兑 1.3943 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/cadusd\">加币</a>。-0.0430%</li>\n<li> 美元兑<a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a> (USD/JPY) 汇率报 1 美元兑 160.3100 <a href=\"https://invest.cnyes.com/forex/detail/jpyusd\">日元</a>。-0.0312%</li>\n</ul>\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4563.html\" title=\"美光营收暴增四倍掀AI盛宴大赚特赚背后对大多数人却不是个好消息\">美光营收暴增四倍掀AI盛宴大赚特赚背后对大多数人却不是个好消息</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-5267.html\" title=\"大摩：美股料将轮动 AI投资重心由晶片转向云端巨头\">大摩：美股料将轮动 AI投资重心由晶片转向云端巨头</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12589.html\" title=\"大摩：油价飙升成美股最大威胁建议以能源股与优质股避险\">大摩：油价飙升成美股最大威胁建议以能源股与优质股避险</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-15053.html\" title=\"AI光通讯迈入第二阶段？康宁数十亿美元长单引爆DCI 四大投资主线浮现\">AI光通讯迈入第二阶段？康宁数十亿美元长单引爆DCI 四大投资主线浮现</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-7280.html\" title=\"美银看好美元下半年续强点名三大关键支撑\">美银看好美元下半年续强点名三大关键支撑</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-4748.html\" title=\"Meta传出售多余算力引爆晶片股卖压！SanDisk跌10% 分析师仍喊NAND缺货续到2027 \">Meta传出售多余算力引爆晶片股卖压！SanDisk跌10% 分析师仍喊NAND缺货续到2027 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