交车优于预期仍难放心！特斯拉Q3财报前多空分歧小摩降目标价杰富瑞反而上调

特斯拉 (Tesla) (TSLA-US) 将于美东时间周三 (21日) 美股收盘后公布2026会计年度第三季财报，市场关注公司能否扭转近期营收与每股盈余多次不如分析师预期的表现。分析师预估，特斯拉第三季营收将达278.8亿美元，低于去年同期的280.9亿美元；每股盈余预估为0.43美元，也低于去年同期的0.50美元，显示即使交车数据优于市场预期，获利与营收仍面临压力。

根据Benzinga Pro数据，特斯拉过去10个季度有6季营收未达分析师预期，不过最近4季中有3季营收优于预期。在获利方面，公司过去7季有5季每股盈余低于市场预估，过去10季则有7季未达预期。若将每股盈余与营收两项指标分开计算，过去10季共20次财报指标中，特斯拉仅有7次优于市场预期，反映公司近期财报表现仍不稳定。

不过，特斯拉第三季交车表现仍提供部分支撑。公司先前公布，第三季交车486,532辆，优于分析师预估，但仍低于去年同期水准。投资人将关注交车成长能否转化为营收，以及公司对今年剩余期间与未来需求的展望。美国汽油价格上升，也可能提高部分消费者对电动车的兴趣，为特斯拉在美国市场带来潜在助力。

项目	数据
第三季营收预估	278.8亿美元
去年同期营收	280.9亿美元
每股盈余预估	0.43美元
去年同期每股盈余	0.50美元
第三季交车量	486,532辆 (优于分析师预估)
过去10季营收表现	6季未达分析师预期
过去7季每股盈余表现	5季未达分析师预期

分析师对特斯拉股价后市看法分歧，近期多家机构调整评级或目标价。GLJ Research维持「卖出」评级，目标价为25美元；杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 维持「持有」评级，将目标价从350美元上调至400美元；Tigress Financial维持「买进」评级，目标价550美元；瑞银 (UBS) 维持「中立」评级，将目标价从385美元上调至391美元；摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 同样维持「中立」评级，但将目标价从445美元下调至415美元。

分析师评级与目标价

机构	评级	目标价	调整情况
GLJ Research	卖出	25美元	维持不变
杰富瑞 (Jefferies)	持有	400美元	由350美元上调
Tigress Financial	买进	550美元	维持不变
瑞银 (UBS)	中立	391美元	由385美元上调
摩根大通 (JPMorgan)	中立	415美元	由445美元下调

除了营收与获利数字，特斯拉执行长马斯克 (Elon Musk) 对公司未来业务的布局，也将成为财报电话会议的重要观察重点。其中一项市场关注议题，是特斯拉与太空探索科技公司 SpaceX (SPCX-US) 是否可能合并。马斯克同时领导两家公司，市场持续关注双方是否有整合可能，以及合并能否带来业务协同效益。不过，相关议题仍属市场关注与猜测，投资人将留意管理层是否提供进一步说明。

自动驾驶业务也是投资人关注的焦点。特斯拉全自动辅助驾驶系统 (FSD) 的活跃订阅数近几季持续增加，订阅收入具有较高毛利与经常性收入的特性。随着公司持续拓展电动车销售市场，尤其是美国市场，FSD订阅业务能否扩大规模并提高收入占比，将影响市场对特斯拉长期获利潜力的评估。

机器人与新车产品的开发进度同样受到关注。特斯拉第二季曾表示，人形机器人Optimus正接近量产阶段，并称量产将在不久后展开，投资人将寻求公司更新实际时程与生产规划。此外，Cybertruck电动皮卡的后续发展，以及Semi电动卡车的量产进度，也可能成为财报电话会议的讨论内容。特斯拉先前曾表示，Semi预计于今年进入量产阶段，市场将关注这项计划是否按进度推进。

股价方面，特斯拉周一上涨3.8%，收于368.06美元。以过去52周来看，股价区间介于297.38美元至498.83美元；近1个月仍下跌1.9%，2026年以来则下跌15.9%。财报公布前的反弹，尚未扭转股价今年以来的跌势，投资人仍需观察公司能否提出足以支撑估值的获利表现与成长展望。

整体而言，特斯拉第三季财报的关键不只在于营收与每股盈余是否优于预期，也包括交车成长能否改善核心汽车业务表现、FSD订阅能否持续扩大，以及Optimus、Cybertruck与Semi等长期计划能否按时推进。在近期财报多次未达预期、分析师目标价差距显著的情况下，管理层对需求、获利能力与新业务进度的说明，可能成为影响财报后股价走势的重要因素。

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Q3交车486,532辆，优于预估但年减，投资人关注营收转化及未来需求展望。
财报焦点：FSD订阅、Optimus、Cybertruck与Semi进度。今年迄今股价仍跌15.9%。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6633890/l/eab2020f92fac9a7b98409464ee7c009.jpg", "content": "特斯拉 (Tesla) (TSLA-US) 将于美东时间周三 (21日) 美股收盘后公布2026会计年度第三季财报，市场关注公司能否扭转近期营收与每股盈余多次不如分析师预期的表现。分析师预估，特斯拉第三季营收将达278.8亿美元，低于去年同期的280.9亿美元；每股盈余预估为0.43美元，也低于去年同期的0.50美元，显示即使交车数据优于市场预期，获利与营收仍面临压力。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6633890/l/eab2020f92fac9a7b98409464ee7c009.jpg\" alt=\"交车优于预期仍难放心！特斯拉Q3财报前多空分歧小摩降目标价杰富瑞反而上调\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n根据Benzinga Pro数据，特斯拉过去10个季度有6季营收未达分析师预期，不过最近4季中有3季营收优于预期。在获利方面，公司过去7季有5季每股盈余低于市场预估，过去10季则有7季未达预期。若将每股盈余与营收两项指标分开计算，过去10季共20次财报指标中，特斯拉仅有7次优于市场预期，反映公司近期财报表现仍不稳定。\n\n不过，特斯拉第三季交车表现仍提供部分支撑。公司先前公布，第三季交车486,532辆，优于分析师预估，但仍低于去年同期水准。投资人将关注交车成长能否转化为营收，以及公司对今年剩余期间与未来需求的展望。美国汽油价格上升，也可能提高部分消费者对电动车的兴趣，为特斯拉在美国市场带来潜在助力。\n\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>项目</th>\n<th>数据</th>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>第三季营收预估</td>\n<td>278.8亿美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>去年同期营收</td>\n<td>280.9亿美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>每股盈余预估</td>\n<td>0.43美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>去年同期每股盈余</td>\n<td>0.50美元</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>第三季交车量</td>\n<td>486,532辆 (优于分析师预估)</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>过去10季营收表现</td>\n<td>6季未达分析师预期</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>过去7季每股盈余表现</td>\n<td>5季未达分析师预期</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\n分析师对特斯拉股价后市看法分歧，近期多家机构调整评级或目标价。GLJ Research维持「卖出」评级，目标价为25美元；杰富瑞 (Jefferies) 维持「持有」评级，将目标价从350美元上调至400美元；Tigress Financial维持「买进」评级，目标价550美元；瑞银 (UBS) 维持「中立」评级，将目标价从385美元上调至391美元；摩根大通 (JPMorgan) 同样维持「中立」评级，但将目标价从445美元下调至415美元。\n\n<h6>分析师评级与目标价</h6>\n\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>\n机构\n</th>\n<th>\n评级\n</th>\n<th>\n目标价\n</th>\n<th>\n调整情况\n</th>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\nGLJ Research\n</td>\n<td>\n卖出\n</td>\n<td>\n25美元\n</td>\n<td>\n维持不变\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n杰富瑞 (Jefferies)\n</td>\n<td>\n持有\n</td>\n<td>\n400美元\n</td>\n<td>\n由350美元上调\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\nTigress Financial\n</td>\n<td>\n买进\n</td>\n<td>\n550美元\n</td>\n<td>\n维持不变\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n瑞银 (UBS)\n</td>\n<td>\n中立\n</td>\n<td>\n391美元\n</td>\n<td>\n由385美元上调\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n摩根大通 (JPMorgan)\n</td>\n<td>\n中立\n</td>\n<td>\n415美元\n</td>\n<td>\n由445美元下调\n</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n\n除了营收与获利数字，特斯拉执行长马斯克 (Elon Musk) 对公司未来业务的布局，也将成为财报电话会议的重要观察重点。其中一项市场关注议题，是特斯拉与太空探索科技公司 SpaceX (SPCX-US) 是否可能合并。马斯克同时领导两家公司，市场持续关注双方是否有整合可能，以及合并能否带来业务协同效益。不过，相关议题仍属市场关注与猜测，投资人将留意管理层是否提供进一步说明。\n\n自动驾驶业务也是投资人关注的焦点。特斯拉全自动辅助驾驶系统 (FSD) 的活跃订阅数近几季持续增加，订阅收入具有较高毛利与经常性收入的特性。随着公司持续拓展电动车销售市场，尤其是美国市场，FSD订阅业务能否扩大规模并提高收入占比，将影响市场对特斯拉长期获利潜力的评估。\n\n机器人与新车产品的开发进度同样受到关注。特斯拉第二季曾表示，人形机器人Optimus正接近量产阶段，并称量产将在不久后展开，投资人将寻求公司更新实际时程与生产规划。此外，Cybertruck电动皮卡的后续发展，以及Semi电动卡车的量产进度，也可能成为财报电话会议的讨论内容。特斯拉先前曾表示，Semi预计于今年进入量产阶段，市场将关注这项计划是否按进度推进。\n\n股价方面，特斯拉周一上涨3.8%，收于368.06美元。以过去52周来看，股价区间介于297.38美元至498.83美元；近1个月仍下跌1.9%，2026年以来则下跌15.9%。财报公布前的反弹，尚未扭转股价今年以来的跌势，投资人仍需观察公司能否提出足以支撑估值的获利表现与成长展望。\n\n整体而言，特斯拉第三季财报的关键不只在于营收与每股盈余是否优于预期，也包括交车成长能否改善核心汽车业务表现、FSD订阅能否持续扩大，以及Optimus、Cybertruck与Semi等长期计划能否按时推进。在近期财报多次未达预期、分析师目标价差距显著的情况下，管理层对需求、获利能力与新业务进度的说明，可能成为影响财报后股价走势的重要因素。\n\n \n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13265.html\" title=\"华许终于让债市安心！Fed抗通膨立场转硬交易员押注9月升息突破五成\">华许终于让债市安心！Fed抗通膨立场转硬交易员押注9月升息突破五成</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-14796.html\" title=\"威瑞森豪砸数十亿美元！康宁成AI光纤大赢家盘中股价飙逾8%\">威瑞森豪砸数十亿美元！康宁成AI光纤大赢家盘中股价飙逾8%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-13286.html\" 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