一年砸1兆美元以上？科技巨头AI投资愈烧愈大债市不再照单全收

生成式 AI 浪潮持续推升全球科技业投资热潮，但大型科技公司的财务优势正面临前所未有的考验。随着资料中心建设、AI 伺服器及基础设施投资快速扩大，Alphabet (GOOG-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、Meta Platforms (META-US) 及甲骨文 (ORCL-US) 虽然仍维持强劲营收与营运现金流成长，但未来自由现金流 (Free Cash Flow, FCF) 正快速缩水，甚至可能转为负值，显示 AI 时代正迫使科技业由「轻资产」模式转向「重资产」经营。

根据 CNBC 引用穆迪评级 (Moody"s Ratings) 资料指出，全球大型科技公司 2026 年资本支出 (CapEx) 总额预计将达 7,850 亿美元，2027 年更可能逼近 1 兆美元。

庞大的投资需求也改变科技公司的融资模式。穆迪估计，全球超大规模云端服务业者 (Hyperscalers) 今年债券发行规模可望达 1,750 亿美元，远高于过去 5 年平均约 300 亿美元，显示 AI 基础建设正大量依赖外部融资。

Futurum Equities 首席市场策略师 Shay Boloor 表示，市场低估了 AI 对大型科技企业商业模式带来的根本改变。

他指出，过去大型科技公司被视为典型的「轻资产平台」，收入成长速度远高于资本投入需求，但 AI 时代正在改变这项优势，未来软体、广告及云端服务的成长，都必须建立在庞大的资料中心、电力及运算基础设施之上，使科技企业逐渐转型为兼具软体与重资产基建的混合型企业。

债券市场也开始反映投资人的疑虑。

近期大型云端服务商公司债信用利差已由两个月前相较美国公债约 50 个基点，扩大至 78 个基点，创 2025 年 4 月关税市场震荡以来最大升幅，代表投资人开始要求更高风险溢酬，而不再像过去一样对科技巨头发债照单全收。

其中，甲骨文成为市场最受瞩目的案例。

在大幅扩建 AI 资料中心导致自由现金流转负后，甲骨文信用违约交换 (CDS) 利差已扩大至 125 个基点以上，创 2009 年金融海啸以来最高水准。

此外，甲骨文 2025 年发行、2035 年到期、票面利率 5.20% 的公司债，发行时信用利差约 105 个基点，之后一度扩大至 175 个基点，导致债券价格明显下跌。

亚马逊同样感受到债市压力。

根据《Fortune》报导，亚马逊 7 月发行 250 亿美元公司债时，为吸引投资人认购，其长天期债券必须额外提高 18 至 21 个基点殖利率；此次认购倍数约为 2.5 倍，也低于今年 3 月约 3.2 倍水准。

Apollo 首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 也指出，今年 2 月大型科技公司新债平均认购倍数约为 5 倍，但 7 月已降至约 2 倍，显示债券投资人态度正逐渐转趋保守。

股市同样开始对高额 AI 投资产生疑虑。

Alphabet 日前公布第二季营收达 1,198 亿美元，年增 24%；Google Cloud 营收更大增 82%，但公司同步将 2026 年资本支出预估由 1,950 亿美元上调至 2,050 亿美元，并预告 2027 年支出仍将维持高档，消息公布后股价反而走跌。

TradeStation 全球市场策略主管 David Russell 表示，如果资本支出持续消耗企业现金，即使获利持续成长，也未必足以支撑股价表现。

他指出，公司存在的目的在于创造现金，而非持续增加支出，因此市场开始重新检视 AI 投资是否能带来足够报酬。

穆迪认为，更深层的挑战来自产业结构转变。

报告指出，矽谷企业正由「轻资产模式」逐步转向「重资产模式」，未来竞争力不再只是软体，而是建立在资料中心、高耗电 AI 伺服器及长期基础设施之上。

目前穆迪追踪的六家大型 AI 基础建设企业，包括微软 (MSFT-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、Alphabet (GOOG-US)、Meta Platforms (META-US)、甲骨文 (ORCL-US) 及 CoreWeave (CRWV-US)，直接债务规模已累积至约 4,600 亿美元。

除此之外，更庞大的压力来自表外承诺。

穆迪统计，六家公司目前资料中心租赁承诺总额已达约 1.2 兆美元，其中超过 8,200 亿美元属于尚未投入营运的资料中心项目。由于企业即使 AI 变现速度低于预期，仍须支付长期租金，因此评级机构已将这类租赁承诺视同债务处理。

穆迪警告，科技业由轻资产转向重资产，需要前所未有的资本投入与融资规模，未来可能削弱企业信用体质。

目前微软与 Alphabet 仍拥有充裕的资产负债表及融资弹性；相较之下，信用评等为 Baa2、展望负面的甲骨文，以及 Ba3 评等的 CoreWeave，财务压力相对较高。

分析人士指出，随着资料中心租赁承诺持续增加，加上 OpenAI、Anthropic 等 AI 模型开发商同时扮演大型云端客户与投资对象角色，债券市场对科技巨头的评价正逐渐改变。未来投资人衡量大型科技公司时，可能不再将其视为纯软体平台，而更接近需要庞大资本支撑的基础建设企业。

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军备竞赛正改写科技巨头的财务模式。尽管营收与现金流持续成长，但为了兴建庞大资料中心，科技业资本支出急遽攀升，自由现金流遭侵蚀，投资人开始重新检视 AI 投资是否能带来足够回报。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6551250/l/7efa4f5f50b406c827208677dc8dcac8.jpg", "content": "生成式 AI 浪潮持续推升全球科技业投资热潮，但大型科技公司的财务优势正面临前所未有的考验。随着资料中心建设、AI 伺服器及基础设施投资快速扩大，Alphabet (GOOG-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、Meta Platforms (META-US) 及甲骨文 (ORCL-US) 虽然仍维持强劲营收与营运现金流成长，但未来自由现金流 (Free Cash Flow, FCF) 正快速缩水，甚至可能转为负值，显示 AI 时代正迫使科技业由「轻资产」模式转向「重资产」经营。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6551250/l/7efa4f5f50b406c827208677dc8dcac8.jpg\" alt=\"一年砸1兆美元以上？科技巨头AI投资愈烧愈大债市不再照单全收\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n根据 CNBC 引用穆迪评级 (Moody\"s Ratings) 资料指出，全球大型科技公司 2026 年资本支出 (CapEx) 总额预计将达 7,850 亿美元，2027 年更可能逼近 1 兆美元。\n\n庞大的投资需求也改变科技公司的融资模式。穆迪估计，全球超大规模云端服务业者 (Hyperscalers) 今年债券发行规模可望达 1,750 亿美元，远高于过去 5 年平均约 300 亿美元，显示 AI 基础建设正大量依赖外部融资。\n\nFuturum Equities 首席市场策略师 Shay Boloor 表示，市场低估了 AI 对大型科技企业商业模式带来的根本改变。\n\n他指出，过去大型科技公司被视为典型的「轻资产平台」，收入成长速度远高于资本投入需求，但 AI 时代正在改变这项优势，未来软体、广告及云端服务的成长，都必须建立在庞大的资料中心、电力及运算基础设施之上，使科技企业逐渐转型为兼具软体与重资产基建的混合型企业。\n\n债券市场也开始反映投资人的疑虑。\n\n近期大型云端服务商公司债信用利差已由两个月前相较美国公债约 50 个基点，扩大至 78 个基点，创 2025 年 4 月关税市场震荡以来最大升幅，代表投资人开始要求更高风险溢酬，而不再像过去一样对科技巨头发债照单全收。\n\n其中，甲骨文成为市场最受瞩目的案例。\n\n在大幅扩建 AI 资料中心导致自由现金流转负后，甲骨文信用违约交换 (CDS) 利差已扩大至 125 个基点以上，创 2009 年金融海啸以来最高水准。\n\n此外，甲骨文 2025 年发行、2035 年到期、票面利率 5.20% 的公司债，发行时信用利差约 105 个基点，之后一度扩大至 175 个基点，导致债券价格明显下跌。\n\n亚马逊同样感受到债市压力。\n\n根据《Fortune》报导，亚马逊 7 月发行 250 亿美元公司债时，为吸引投资人认购，其长天期债券必须额外提高 18 至 21 个基点殖利率；此次认购倍数约为 2.5 倍，也低于今年 3 月约 3.2 倍水准。\n\nApollo 首席经济学家 Torsten Slok 也指出，今年 2 月大型科技公司新债平均认购倍数约为 5 倍，但 7 月已降至约 2 倍，显示债券投资人态度正逐渐转趋保守。\n\n股市同样开始对高额 AI 投资产生疑虑。\n\nAlphabet 日前公布第二季营收达 1,198 亿美元，年增 24%；Google Cloud 营收更大增 82%，但公司同步将 2026 年资本支出预估由 1,950 亿美元上调至 2,050 亿美元，并预告 2027 年支出仍将维持高档，消息公布后股价反而走跌。\n\nTradeStation 全球市场策略主管 David Russell 表示，如果资本支出持续消耗企业现金，即使获利持续成长，也未必足以支撑股价表现。\n\n他指出，公司存在的目的在于创造现金，而非持续增加支出，因此市场开始重新检视 AI 投资是否能带来足够报酬。\n\n穆迪认为，更深层的挑战来自产业结构转变。\n\n报告指出，矽谷企业正由「轻资产模式」逐步转向「重资产模式」，未来竞争力不再只是软体，而是建立在资料中心、高耗电 AI 伺服器及长期基础设施之上。\n\n目前穆迪追踪的六家大型 AI 基础建设企业，包括微软 (MSFT-US)、亚马逊 (AMZN-US)、Alphabet (GOOG-US)、Meta Platforms (META-US)、甲骨文 (ORCL-US) 及 CoreWeave (CRWV-US)，直接债务规模已累积至约 4,600 亿美元。\n\n除此之外，更庞大的压力来自表外承诺。\n\n穆迪统计，六家公司目前资料中心租赁承诺总额已达约 1.2 兆美元，其中超过 8,200 亿美元属于尚未投入营运的资料中心项目。由于企业即使 AI 变现速度低于预期，仍须支付长期租金，因此评级机构已将这类租赁承诺视同债务处理。\n\n穆迪警告，科技业由轻资产转向重资产，需要前所未有的资本投入与融资规模，未来可能削弱企业信用体质。\n\n目前微软与 Alphabet 仍拥有充裕的资产负债表及融资弹性；相较之下，信用评等为 Baa2、展望负面的甲骨文，以及 Ba3 评等的 CoreWeave，财务压力相对较高。\n\n分析人士指出，随着资料中心租赁承诺持续增加，加上 OpenAI、Anthropic 等 AI 模型开发商同时扮演大型云端客户与投资对象角色，债券市场对科技巨头的评价正逐渐改变。未来投资人衡量大型科技公司时，可能不再将其视为纯软体平台，而更接近需要庞大资本支撑的基础建设企业。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-12037.html\" title=\"股市修正与崩盘不可避免历史经验建议投资人应该「这么做」\">股市修正与崩盘不可避免历史经验建议投资人应该「这么做」</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/new/mg/article-20859.html\" title=\"苹果明知折叠机iPhone Duo供应不足仍坚持启动预购\">苹果明知折叠机iPhone 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