天天财经-提供金融入门知识-投资理财技巧-卖一台亏一台！记忆体涨到三星都扛不住手机被曝减产30%

记忆体价格急涨, 连三星电子 (Samsung Electronics) 都面临手机业务获利压力。韩媒《MoneyToday》报导, 三星行动体验 (MX) 部门已要求供应商下修第四季手机供货量20%至30%, 反映记忆体成本飙升正侵蚀手机利润, 即使持续出货, 部分机种也可能难以获利。

卖一台亏一台！记忆体涨到三星都扛不住手机被曝减产30%

报导指出, 三星原先预估2026年智慧型手机产量约2.7亿支, 若减产计划落实, 全年产量可能下滑至约2亿支规模。除了第四季的季节性需求放缓, 记忆体成本上涨也是重要因素。三星通常会在隔年初推出新一代Galaxy旗舰手机, 消费者可能因此延后换机, 但此次传出的减产幅度高于一般季节性调整。

根据市场研究机构IDC数据, 三星今年第一季与第二季智慧型手机出货量分别为6,240万支及6,270万支。TrendForce估计, 2025年三星智慧型手机产量约2.4亿支, 与苹果 (Apple) (AAPL-US) 同为全球主要手机制造商。若2026年产量由原先预估的2.7亿支降至约2亿支, 将显示记忆体成本对生产规画造成的冲击相当显著。

成本压力主要来自手机使用的低功耗动态随机存取记忆体 (LPDDR)。TrendForce数据显示, 今年第二季12GB LPDDR5X手机记忆体价格约145至146美元, 较去年同期大涨175%; 第三季价格则预估较前一季再上涨约20%, 最高可能达180美元。人工智慧 (AI) 产业对记忆体需求快速攀升, 使供应商将产能优先配置给需求强劲的AI伺服器与高阶记忆体产品, 进一步推升手机记忆体采购成本。

三星同时身兼记忆体供应商与手机制造商, 形成特殊的内部成本矛盾: 半导体部门可受惠于记忆体价格上涨, 但手机部门却必须以更高价格采购零组件。当记忆体成本快速上升, 手机厂商只能在调高售价、压缩利润与减少产量之间做选择。若大幅涨价, 可能削弱消费者购买意愿; 若自行吸收成本, 则会压缩每支手机的获利空间。

这项压力也不只影响三星。TrendForce今年2月预估, 受记忆体价格上涨及终端需求承受能力有限影响, 2026年全球智慧型手机产量可能年减10%, 降至约11.35亿支; 若情况进一步恶化, 年减幅度可能扩大至15%或以上。以主流8GB记忆体搭配256GB储存空间的手机为例, 2026年第一季相关记忆体合约价格较去年同期几乎增加200%, 记忆体在手机物料清单中的成本占比, 也从过去约10%至15%升至约30%至40%。

对手机品牌而言, 这波涨价可能迫使业者重新调整产品组合, 减少低毛利机种与低容量配置, 并将资源集中在高阶产品。苹果因高阶机种占比较高, 相较部分以中低阶手机为主的品牌, 较有空间吸收成本或调整售价; 但整体产业仍面临价格上涨与消费需求转弱的双重压力。

不过, 三星尚未正式证实第四季减产20%至30%的消息, 全年产量是否因此下修, 仍有待后续供应链与公司资讯确认。若记忆体价格持续高档, 手机业者可能进一步调整产量、规格及售价, 而AI需求与记忆体供应分配将持续牵动全球手机市场。

另外, IDC预估三星第三季与第四季手机产量分别为5,900万支及5,200万支, 第四季季减约12%。《MoneyToday》报导的减产幅度则是供应商收到的供货量下修要求, 两者统计口径不同, 不宜直接视为相同数字。

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TrendForce预估2026年全球手机产量年减10%至11.35亿支, 记忆体涨价恐压缩手机业者利润。", "img": "https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6626603/l/7d96cd9e91acae907b185b69cbd2ad12.jpg", "content": "记忆体价格急涨, 连三星电子 (Samsung Electronics) 都面临手机业务获利压力。韩媒《MoneyToday》报导, 三星行动体验 (MX) 部门已要求供应商下修第四季手机供货量20%至30%, 反映记忆体成本飙升正侵蚀手机利润, 即使持续出货, 部分机种也可能难以获利。\n<img src=\"https://cimg.cnyes.cool/prod/news/6626603/l/7d96cd9e91acae907b185b69cbd2ad12.jpg\" alt=\"卖一台亏一台！记忆体涨到三星都扛不住手机被曝减产30%\" style=\"width:50%;height:auto;border-radius:6px;margin:15px auto;display:block;\">\n\n\n报导指出, 三星原先预估2026年智慧型手机产量约2.7亿支, 若减产计划落实, 全年产量可能下滑至约2亿支规模。除了第四季的季节性需求放缓, 记忆体成本上涨也是重要因素。三星通常会在隔年初推出新一代Galaxy旗舰手机, 消费者可能因此延后换机, 但此次传出的减产幅度高于一般季节性调整。\n\n根据市场研究机构IDC数据, 三星今年第一季与第二季智慧型手机出货量分别为6,240万支及6,270万支。TrendForce估计, 2025年三星智慧型手机产量约2.4亿支, 与苹果 (Apple) (AAPL-US) 同为全球主要手机制造商。若2026年产量由原先预估的2.7亿支降至约2亿支, 将显示记忆体成本对生产规画造成的冲击相当显著。\n\n成本压力主要来自手机使用的低功耗动态随机存取记忆体 (LPDDR)。TrendForce数据显示, 今年第二季12GB LPDDR5X手机记忆体价格约145至146美元, 较去年同期大涨175%; 第三季价格则预估较前一季再上涨约20%, 最高可能达180美元。人工智慧 (AI) 产业对记忆体需求快速攀升, 使供应商将产能优先配置给需求强劲的AI伺服器与高阶记忆体产品, 进一步推升手机记忆体采购成本。\n\n三星同时身兼记忆体供应商与手机制造商, 形成特殊的内部成本矛盾: 半导体部门可受惠于记忆体价格上涨, 但手机部门却必须以更高价格采购零组件。当记忆体成本快速上升, 手机厂商只能在调高售价、压缩利润与减少产量之间做选择。若大幅涨价, 可能削弱消费者购买意愿; 若自行吸收成本, 则会压缩每支手机的获利空间。\n\n这项压力也不只影响三星。TrendForce今年2月预估, 受记忆体价格上涨及终端需求承受能力有限影响, 2026年全球智慧型手机产量可能年减10%, 降至约11.35亿支; 若情况进一步恶化, 年减幅度可能扩大至15%或以上。以主流8GB记忆体搭配256GB储存空间的手机为例, 2026年第一季相关记忆体合约价格较去年同期几乎增加200%, 记忆体在手机物料清单中的成本占比, 也从过去约10%至15%升至约30%至40%。\n\n对手机品牌而言, 这波涨价可能迫使业者重新调整产品组合, 减少低毛利机种与低容量配置, 并将资源集中在高阶产品。苹果因高阶机种占比较高, 相较部分以中低阶手机为主的品牌, 较有空间吸收成本或调整售价; 但整体产业仍面临价格上涨与消费需求转弱的双重压力。\n\n不过, 三星尚未正式证实第四季减产20%至30%的消息, 全年产量是否因此下修, 仍有待后续供应链与公司资讯确认。若记忆体价格持续高档, 手机业者可能进一步调整产量、规格及售价, 而AI需求与记忆体供应分配将持续牵动全球手机市场。\n\n另外, IDC预估三星第三季与第四季手机产量分别为5,900万支及5,200万支, 第四季季减约12%。《MoneyToday》报导的减产幅度则是供应商收到的供货量下修要求, 两者统计口径不同, 不宜直接视为相同数字。\n<div class=\"related-articles seo-links\">\n <h4>相关阅读</h4>\n <ul>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19515.html\" title=\"OpenAI一次释出722篇AI论文引战陶哲轩带头数学家联合抵制\">OpenAI一次释出722篇AI论文引战陶哲轩带头数学家联合抵制</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19514.html\" title=\"台积电Q3营收1.49兆元创单季高、大立光攻CPO、9月进出口连35红本周大事回顾\">台积电Q3营收1.49兆元创单季高、大立光攻CPO、9月进出口连35红本周大事回顾</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19517.html\" title=\"OpenAI营收低于预期甲骨文寻求巨额债务融资 AI概念股全面承压\">OpenAI营收低于预期甲骨文寻求巨额债务融资 AI概念股全面承压</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19504.html\" title=\"人行重申：人民币汇率不设目标无意靠贬值抢出口\">人行重申：人民币汇率不设目标无意靠贬值抢出口</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19518.html\" title=\"〈热门股〉敬鹏喜迎工控电子板新订单营收获突破放量周涨4.39%\">〈热门股〉敬鹏喜迎工控电子板新订单营收获突破放量周涨4.39%</a></li>\n <li><a href=\"/hour/article-19479.html\" title=\"H-1B转绿卡受阻！美暂停微软、Adobe等企业绿卡劳工认证新申请\">H-1B转绿卡受阻！美暂停微软、Adobe等企业绿卡劳工认证新申请</a></li>\n </ul>\n</div>", "status": 0, "pv": 1, "link": "https://news.cnyes.com/news/id/6626603", "createdAt": "2026-10-09T02:50:06.000Z", "updatedAt": "2026-10-09T03:09:16.000Z" }, "position": [ { "id": 30, "pid": 0, "name": "实时", "pinyin": "hour", "path": "/hour", "orderBy": 0, "target": "0", "status": "0", "listView": "list.html", "articleView": "article.html", "seoTitle": "", "seoKeywords": "", "seoDescription": "", "type": "0", "dataConfig": null, "level": 1 } ], "_locals": {}, "cache": false }

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