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经济学家：美英央行今年按兵不动机率高 欧日央行则有升息预期

2026-08-25 06:34:34 网络 阅读（1）

多家机构最新调查显示，专业分析师对今年剩余时间全球主要央行路径判断呈明显分化，联准会(Fed)与英国央行(BoE)有很高机率维持利率不变，欧洲央行(ECB)与日本央行(BOJ)则仍留有升息空间。

经济学家：美英央行今年按兵不动机率高 欧日央行则有升息预期

在联准会部分，高盛首席经济学家Jan Hatzius明确表示，市场仍定价过多紧缩，通膨数据更可能续改善，故预期今年剩余时间利率不动。

在8月12–17日接受调查的104名经济学家中，80人(约77%)预期全年不升息，94人认为下月会议维持3.5%–3.75%区间；State Street等机构亦认为，近期通膨足以支撑年底前按兵不动，市场已把下次升息预期延后至2027年初。

BoE方面，Vanguard资深经济学家Shaan Raithatha指出，通膨降温、薪资与服务通膨回落，已不再预期加息，2026–2027 年政策利率看平。汇丰(HSBC)的Elizabeth Martins与摩根士丹利的Bruna Skarica均强调二轮效应证据有限，是按兵不动核心理由。

不过，分析师普遍预期ECB恐因能源冲击致通膨风险升高而在今年内再升息。至于BOJ，多数经济学家认为正常化未结束，今年内升息机率偏高。

当前共识立基于通膨缓降、增长放缓但未崩溃。风险在于：若美国个人消费支出(PCE)、英国薪资/服务通膨显粘性，或地缘推高能源价，升息机率将快速上修；反之就业转弱则打开降息讨论。投资人本周聚焦PCE与Fed主席华许在杰克森洞演说，验证这套「美英停、欧日动」的分化共识是否稳固。

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